Talking to everyone in Europe about climate change is like being a kid all over again. Who spilled this? Can't you control yourself? Who's going to take responsibility for this?
Quite frankly I'm tired of being lectured, which was why being in Greece was so great. As far as I can tell, they couldn't care less. And besides they're far too busy with much more intellectual pursuits like which country can be called Macedonia and which cannot. Definitely more on that later.
But Northern and Central Europe is so wrapped up in climate change that it's borderline obsessive, and the arguments are similar everywhere: CO2 and methane is way up in proportion to temperatures. The measurements taken from ice core samples indicate a slight lag from the start of the industrial age and also seem to indicate human causality. And someone's gonna pay. And it looks like they want the highest per capita user to be the one to pay. Rats, I think that's the US.
Not to rant, but why not, it's my web page. I'm pretty sure I didn't do all this, but it sure looks like they want me to pay. Hey, I'm just trying to send my kid to tennis camp, and you want me to pay how much for plastic bags??? And being told by people serving me water in plastic bottles?
Besides aren't developing countries the issue? With their coal and high sulfur power plants and giant populations, won't incremental change make a bigger difference there rather than here. (Turns out it won't, because --shocker-- they don't like being lectured anymore than you or I.)
The rational side of me wins out, so bear with me, this gets a bit complicated and kind of lengthy. And believe me when I say I'm leaving out the details. Besides, who wouldn't want to be more efficient, and if my household power bill goes down shouldn't I be focusing on the ROI of a better light bulb rather than out of pocket (cap and trade) costs? Damn right.
So let's touch on the actual premise of climate change, and we'll call it the Jesus Christ argument. Let's start with the thought that ice core data is what it is and regardless of temperature change, who wouldn't want their home or business to be more efficient, less expensive and healthier. Choices made based on a carbon footprint aren't all that hard to make and just doing this incrementally is smart business and smart citizenship. Suddenly small choices add up and we're part of the solution and not the problem.
Some folks will pragmatically argue that even if there is no Jesus Christ it is smart to believe in Him because the alternative of eternal damnation is much worse than simply dying. There are an awful lot of Baptists sitting in church on Sunday for that very reason. Is the climate change debate so different? Might as well do something rather than nothing. You know, just in case? Especially if it costs me less over time.
Copenhagen is hosting the COP15 climate change conference in a few weeks, so we were able to get access to a lot of policy people who think about this kind of dribble a lot more than I would ever care to. We got a few novel ideas and a few draconian ones, too. The one I like best is based on investment, because frankly I am not excited about paying fees for my carbon usage: has anyone heard there's a recession out there and that Kevin the Consumer will drive our way out. Unless, of course, I can't because I'm paying extra for just about everything else.
So remember the lightbulb ROI choices I mentioned above? Individual choices based on ROI that lower my power bill and total costs over time. Turns out countries can do this too. In fact right now is the perfect time since the US and other governments are hell bent on spending money right now, making spending on 'green' technology a fait accompli. In fact some governments are even wanting to buy more wind farms, solar photovaultaic cells, and other to decrease our dependence on fossil fuels. But one group in Copenhagen argues against this. They ask,'Has anyone bothered to notice that these are so inefficient that they cost a lot and won't help in the overall drive to provide the world with gigawatts of more power or significantly drive down temperatures?' Seriously, does anyone really believe that hundreds of wind farms are going solve a possible rise in temperatures world wide?
But just like the race to the moon spun off dozens of new technology investments, the same can happen in alternative energy: focsed R&D, spurring innovation and fostering entrepreneurship. There is a group in Copenhagen arguing for investment ultimately with the aim to have alternative energy to actually be price competitive with fossil fuels. What a concept --the consumer chooses? And people are incented to start businesses to provide alternatives.
So to paint the whole post with a broad brush, couple this type of investment for long term gains with smart personal choices for short term gain and we may be on to something. Imagine a whole post on climate change and I used the word 'green' just once.
(If you thought this was winded, be glad I left out the information on capturing cow methane.)
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Enjoying the accounts of your trip, and especially the not-so-veiled reference to Paschal's Wager. Well done. I'm also with you on ROI application in "environmentalism" - exactly the beauty of capitalism that the most efficient and effective solution will win out. Investing funds to develop products with a positive NPV over the long term is clearly the answer, but unfortunately current US leadership seems to agree with your hosts that the whip is more powerful than the carrot. A short-sighted, near-term solution with unintended consequences to be sure. Looking forward to more from Germany.
ReplyDeleteAwesome, rational, well-thought analysis.
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